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Manager John has to make decision in the following situation. …

Manager John has to make decision in the following situation.  Three decision alternatives are A, B, and C. Probabilities of unfavorable, so-so, and favorable economy are 0.2, 0.45, and 0.35 respectively.  The payoff table is as below:

Investment alternativesEconomy Development
un-favorableso-sofavorable
Prob=0.2Prob=0.45Prob=0.35
A-1008001000
B500300800
C-40002500

 

1. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for this case. (Show your calculations. Keep 2 digits after decimal point.)

2. Suppose John considers to consult an investment specialist, whose credentials show that the specialist has been correct in 85% of his predictions.  Up to how much would John pay to the specialist? (Show your calculations. Keep 2 digits after decimal point.)

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