Manager John has to make decision in the following situation. Three decision alternatives are A, B, and C. Probabilities of unfavorable, so-so, and favorable economy are 0.2, 0.45, and 0.35 respectively. The payoff table is as below:
Investment alternatives | Economy Development | ||
un-favorable | so-so | favorable | |
Prob=0.2 | Prob=0.45 | Prob=0.35 | |
A | -100 | 800 | 1000 |
B | 500 | 300 | 800 |
C | -400 | 0 | 2500 |
1. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for this case. (Show your calculations. Keep 2 digits after decimal point.)
2. Suppose John considers to consult an investment specialist, whose credentials show that the specialist has been correct in 85% of his predictions. Up to how much would John pay to the specialist? (Show your calculations. Keep 2 digits after decimal point.)